Rising tensions between Iran and Israel threaten to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. With potential implications for fuel prices, major exporters like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE watch closely.
Strait of Hormuz: A Strategic Economic Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Iran and Oman, handles roughly 30 % of the world’s oil and nearly 18 % of global LNG shipments. Just 40 km wide at its narrowest point, it carries 14 super‑tankers daily—85 % bound for Asia—supporting energy-hungry nations like China, India, Japan and South Korea. Its restricted width and military vulnerability render the region exceptionally sensitive to geopolitical shifts.
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Lire l'articleRegional Stakes: Qatar and Gulf Exporters on the Line
Major oil producers—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar—depend on Hormuz to export crude and liquefied gas. Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, in particular risks congestion or shutdown. Its LNG carriers must reroute, raising transport costs and supply delays. Even minor disruptions could spark ripple effects globally, especially in export-dependent Gulf states.
Geopolitical Flashpoint: Israel–Iran Tensions Escalate
Since June 2025, the Israel–Iran conflict has escalated with attacks on nuclear sites and missile exchanges. Iran has threatened to close the Strait, a tactic it used in 2011 when Western sanctions pressured Iran’s oil sector. Analysts warn that closing or mining the channel—just 24 nautical miles wide—would provoke swift U.S. and allied military countermeasures, due to doctrines like the U.S. ensuring Gulf security.
Economic Fallout: Fuel Price Jumps Likely
Global markets are reacting. France and other European countries are urgently advising citizens to top‑up fuel tanks at risk of price hikes. Analysts forecast Brent prices could surge 10–20 % on any Gulf blockade. Short‑term disruption may be absorbed by nations with strategic reserves—AIE members hold up to five‑month supplies—but non-affiliated importers like India and China could suffer immediate energy price shocks.
Future Outlook: Tension, Diversification, Cooperation
While a full blockade is improbable, the mere threat is enough to ratchet up global energy costs. Long-term infrastructure like Iraqi Kurdistan-Turkey pipelines and potential Red Sea shipping routes may gain traction, but none can replace Hormuz in speed or volume. Gulf Cooperation Council states are enhancing collective security, while Western naval presence—US Fifth Fleet, British and French forces—acts as deterrent. Still, the region's future hinges on diplomatic efforts between Tehran, Western powers and regional Gulf leaders.
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